NFL Betting: NFL Systems and Early NFL Pick

NFL Betting: We’re starting to see a few trends develop with certain NFL teams that can present wagering opportunities for astute bettors.

Not typical betting trends that speak of how ‘Team A’ performs against division rivals or as three-point favorite; those are easy to spot by sportsbook and bettors alike.

These trends are more like habits that are continuously producing the same net result and in the right matchup can generate solid betting options.

1. GIANT DROPS – The most famous drop in Manhattan used to be the big apple on New Year’s Eve but now it’s the ones by Eli Manning’s receivers. The worst part is that they don’t just drop the ball; they usually tip it to a defensive back!

2. PALM THE BALL – The only QBs with more interceptions per attempt than Carson Palmer are Eli Manning (see above) and Brett Favre – the NFL’s all-time INT King. Cincinnati cannot be trusted.

New York (-7.5) is hosting a Jacksonville team this week that have scored 79 points during a current three-game win streak, and sportsbook  is giving us more than a TD?

Cincinnati visits one of the toughest secondaries in football and the Jets (-9) can’t wait to face a trigger happy QB like Palmer.

Early football picks can offer great value and the Jaguars and Jets are two plays worth considering.

CHILLY MAKES TWO
After compiling a 40-37 straight-up record in five seasons with Minnesota, Brad Childress was fired this week after the Vikings were blown out by division rival Green Bay.

Leslie Frazier has become the second interim coach named in the past two weeks and Minnesota can only hope to enjoy the same success the Dallas Cowboys have enjoyed under interim coach Jason Garrett.

Dallas is 2-0 SU/ATS since making the change and they weren’t exactly nail biters, but it’s still an exception to the rule for how new coaches perform when taking over mid-season.

ON AN INTERIM BASIS
Only three coaches that were fired mid-season since 1978 have been in the midst of a winning season but for nearly all of the 42 interim coaches promoted during that span it’s been a struggle finding straight-up wins down the stretch.

– Interim head coaches are 4-11-1 ATS overall in their first game since 1998

When you consider Dallas’ wins, 33-20 at New York and 35-19 vs. Detroit, it’s no wonder the online sportsbooks have shaded the line for the Vikings-Redskins game in Week 12. But does that make it any less likely Frazier will fail?

– Interim head coaches are 2-10-1 ATS the past 12 years when not coming off a bye week

Frazier was in his fourth year as Vikings D-Co and will presumably maintain control of the defensive play-calling. Through stints with Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Philadelphia that was his niche so with nothing on the line, why change.

Oddsmakers have posted an opening line of Washington -1.5 with an Over/Under of 43.
Pick: Take the Redskins

Sports Betting

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